The Scenarios for Olympiacos & PAOK in the Europa League Finale

-- The Scenarios for Olympiacos & PAOK in the Europa League Finale --
 

Olympiacos and PAOK still have plenty to fight for in the final match day of the Europa league group stages and AGONAsport.com breaks down all the scenarios for both clubs. Panathinaikos has been mathematically eliminated from advancing to the next round.


OLYMPIACOS

Background; Olympiacos have already clinched their place in the Europa League knockout stages after their 1-1 draw against Young Boys on matchday five. The Erythrolefki will travel to Cyprus to face-off against the group leaders, APOEL, for first place in the group. Currently, APOEL sit in first with nine points while Olympiacos have accumulated eight points from five games. The current group standings can be seen here...

Scenarios: It is simple for Olympiacos, only a win will suffice to claim first place in group B. A draw or an APOEL win will give the Cypriot Champions top spot in the group.

A reminder that the first placed teams from each group and the best four 3rd placed teams from the Champions League will be seeded in the knockout stage draw and will be paired with a theoretically easier opponent, including a second placed team from the Europa League group stage or one of the remaining four 3rd placed teams from the Champions League. Additionally, the seeded teams will play the second leg at home.

PAOK

Background: After a tremendous win in Italy against Fiorentina, PAOK are well in contention to advance to the knockout stages of the Europa League. However, they will need some help as they are not fully in control of their fate. Currently, Fiorentina sits in first with 10-points while both Qarabag and PAOK each have seven points. Qarabag has the tiebreaker advantage over PAOK due to their better head-to-head record. Slovan Liberec sits in last place with 4-points, but still has a small chance of claiming second spot. On the final match day, PAOK will host Slovan Liberec while Qarabag hosts Fiorentina. The current group standings can be seen here...

Scenarios: Things are a lot more complicated in Group J with PAOK (refer to the scenario chart below for further clarification) as the Dikefalos tou Vora can claim 2nd through 4th place after matchday 6. Let's look at all the scenarios. 

  • If PAOK wins, they will advance if Qarabag draws or loses against Fiorentina. If both Qarabag and PAOK win, the Azerbaijani side will finish in first place and Fiorentina will claim second place, leaving PAOK in third. Unless, Qarabag defeats Fiorentina by 6-goals or more, which is VERY unlikely, and would give PAOK second and send Fiorentina to 3rd place. 
  • If PAOK draws against Slovan Liberec, Fiorentina MUST defeat Qarabag which would put PAOK on 8 points and Qarabag on 7 points, giving second place to PAOK. If both PAOK and Qarabag draw, Qarabag will advance due to their better head-to-head record.
  • A PAOK loss against Slovan Liberec would mathematically eliminate PAOK regardless of the result in the other match. In this scenario, if Qarabag also losses there will be a 3-way tie on seven points between PAOK, Slovan Liberec, and Qarabag, meaning that Slovan Liberec would finish 2nd, Qarabaq 3rd, and PAOk 4th based on head-to-head results between the  three clubs.


PAOK SCENARIO CHART

Results Qarabag (W) QAR/FIO (D) Fiorentina (W)
PAOK (W) *QAR; FIO; PAO; LIB FIO; PAO; QAR; LIB FIO; PAO; QAR; LIB
PAOK/LIB (D) **FIO; QAR; PAO; LIB FIO; QAR; PAO; LIB FIO; PAO; QAR; LIB
Liberec (W) ***FIO; QAR; PAO ; LIB ****FIO; QAR; PAO; LIB FIO; LIB; QAR; PAO

Color Key

  • PAOK Advances to Knockout Stages
  • PAOK has minute Chance to Advance (Refer to *Extra Information)
  • PAOK Eliminated from Europa League

-- Extra Information from the Scenario Chart --

*If Qarabag defeats Fiorentina by 6 goals or more then the standings will finish: QAR, PAO, FIO, LIB
**If Qarabag wins by 5 goals or more (or 4-0) the standings will finish: QAR, FIO , PAO, LIB
***If Qarabag wins by 5 goals or more (or 4-0) they will jump ahead of Fiorentina into first. If Slovan Liberec defeats PAOK by 2 goals or more they move into 3rd place, sending PAOK to fourth.
**** If Slovan Liberec defeats PAOK by 2 goals or more the standings will finish: FIO, QAR, LIB, PAO

 
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